Let's start with the likely losers. The former secret society, the Scarlet Brotherhood (7%) had an improbable surge of success in GHW1, taking over Onnwal, Idee, Lordship of the Isles and the Sea Princes. Of course only six years late most of those gains were slipping away. Their reliance on Hepmonaland conscripts and foreign sea power to hold together their scattered territory likely contributed to their losses. In the resurgent GHW2, the Brotherhood looks to be an instigator at best. With everyone on the lookout for their assassins and spies, there is no chance to expand from their remote peninsula much less retake anything lost previously. Their nearest outlet to attack is the County of Sunndi and its natural resources. Again however their chances of success are hard with the Vast Swamp in-between and the fact Sunndi is encircled by hills and mountains. Demihumans would also put up a long fight against any occupiers. In truth the SB's best chance at any success would be to usurp the allied Empire of the Pomarj. This is a lateral move for them but it could put them in striking distance of Greyhawk if GHW3 ever breaks out. Don't worry about the Brotherhood shaking anything up.
The Kingdom of Nyrond (15%) is in bad shape as well. The kingdom is big and spread out with few natural defenses. The last war stretched their resources and manpower thin and it was looking like the place might crumble like its enemy the Great Kingdom did a mere six years earlier. GHW2 breaks out and suddenly Nyrond is on the defensive from all directions. Their chances of winning anything would be to completely drive out evil from old Almor or maybe put down an indignant Theocracy of the Pale to secure the north. Greyhawk scholars seem to agree, the old Nyrondese Cavalry Squadrons might have their last ride in this war. Nyrond's loss could be a gain for neighboring nations like the Urnsts and the Pale who would pick up disaffected refugees from the failing kingdom. That is unless they are turned away!
Surprisingly, major player the Empire of Iuz is given only a 18% chance of winning GHW2. Iuz's empire had already started to flake apart post-Wars. His demigod resourcefulness and high powered circle of henchmen ensured they could easily take the Northern Marches, including the Bandit Kingdoms. Their push into Furyondy stalled however and those gains were lost as the knights of good moved in place to retake the Shield Lands next. By the time Iuz's enemies are ready for GHW2, the Old One himself will likely be in personal trouble again, having to always deal with major threats like Vecna or the Circle of Eight. Iuz's empire can only hope to see success if they go after more soft targets. Instead of southward his forces must finally roll over the Tiger and Wolf Nomads to the west then into Stonehold to the east. Stonefists can be beguiled by Iuz as we learned, but the nomads are used to his tricks and might avoid direct conflict. It's a long shot but if Iuz could secure Perrenland, his mother Iggwilv's old realm, that could improve his odds drastically.
In the same boat as Iuz is the fractured Great Kingdom of Aerdy. At 20% that's basically a 1-4 on a d20 roll. Since GHW1, it has split into 2-3 large kingdoms and several free cities. the old capital Rauxes and the See of Medegia are wasted. Undead run the place from animus to death knights. It's not a good time to be a human in the east. This means if GHW2 broke out, poor peasants would be running in all directions to avoid the deprivations of their own rulers who would be busy in a civil war of sorts, much less worrying about a traditional opponent like Nyrond or the Iron League. In this eventual civil war, the edge here goes to the United Kingdom of Ahlissa, which has a very secure and defensible position in the south with plenty of natural resources, sea access and rational rulers who aren't trying to turn the place into a necropolis. If there is any way the Great Kingdom beats the odds and wins at GHW2 it's if one of the claimants to the Overking's throne brings Aerdy back together with little bloodshed, probably with the assistance of high magic like the Malachite Throne or the Regalia of Might.
Now for the obvious winners of GHW2. At 34% we have the Kingdom of Keoland. Interestingly their only real conflict came at the hands of a giant incursion into the western states of Geoff and Sterich. If they had any other real problems it was with traditional foe Ket or middling piracy still coming out of Scarlet Brotherhood controlled Sea Princes. Keoland thus got off rather easy in GHW1 and still has full forces of knights and navies to utilize. Even at 34% however, confidence is low that they make any ground. I see them as repelling the giants eventually with hero support, and even possibly reclaiming old lands like Westkeep from the Brotherhood who are too far away to aid their forces. Likewise, the Pomarj is just too far to be a concern to them (unless Ulek needs help though) and Keoland realistically shouldn't sweat Iuz unless Furyondy-Veluna falls. (see below) So yes, Keoland has everything to gain and little chance to see any credible losses unless inner court turmoil does them in, as is the case in many other kingdoms.
Then there is the fan favorite, Kingdom of Furyondy at 43%. If any one can win GHW2 and needs to it is this bastion of Good. With the help of Veluna and the Knights of Holy Shielding, Furyondy had already halted and drove back Iuz within 6 years. After regrouping there is no reason to think that the Shield Lands aren't liberated next, then a push made to finally conquer Molag and capital Dorakaa as well. Alot of this second effort is supported by heroic intervention of course, behind the scenes, keeping the Old One busy or weakening his power in various ways. Furyondy has the best knights in its vanguard and if it gains any more allies, say from Highfolk or the Bandit Lands uprising, their success would be quite higher. Really Furyondy doesn't seem in a position to lose, perhaps another stalemate at worst. I do know from experience though, once Furyondy does defeat Iuz permanently and drive all the evil away, the void is quickly filled by other bandit kings and scheming lords wanting to rule in stead. It's an exciting prospect if Furyondy wins GHW2. Can they maintain the peace thereafter or will they move on to the next crusade?
Finally, the Other category at 3% is quite a long shot. There is some states in the Flanaess that could "win" in the event of a second Greyhawk War. Perrenland or Highfolk are ones that spring to mind. Perrenland can either side with evil and take out Highfolk, or side with good and expand by taking out unruly Ket. This of course could ignite a whole new Greyhawk Wars 3 when the Baklunish realms band together to drive back the forces of the east. Highfolk (and the Vesve Forest) peoples benefit by winning in that they drive out evil and can secure a peaceful region again.
Other long shots, the nomads of the north could rally together (Tiger, Wolf, Rovers) and form a horde to pinch out Iuz from two directions. The chances they ally are slim though. Another remote winner is the barbarian lands who could (and should have after Howl From the North) band together into a horde and raid Bone March again (successfully?) or attack the North Province by sea or even go as far as taking the Sea Barons. There's many ways they could succeed if only the barbarians would be utilized. One last musing, let's say Rary lashes out in GHW2. He uses all his magical might, he restores Sulm, he unleashes automata, daemons, or he attracts unlikely allies to his cause like the Gynarchs of Hardby or humanoid enclaves scattered around the central region. He could thus easily threaten his immediate vicinity such as the Duchy of Urnst, the Wild Coast and yes, the Free City of Greyhawk. What's your thoughts? Thanks for reading!
Nyrond is one of the Kingdoms I voted for. I did so with the view that "surviving" would be a win for them. I think they can. They'll hold on.
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